Xu Shao (simplified: 许劭, traditional: 許劭, pinyin: Xǔ Shào), courtesy name Zijiang (子將), was a famous character evaluator from Runan Commandery during the late Eastern Han dynasty. Together with his cousin Xu Jing (許靖), he conducted the celebrated Monthly Evaluations (月旦評, Yuèdàn Píng) on the first day of each month, assessing the conduct and potential of local figures. He is best known for his evaluation of Cao Cao: that Cao would be “an able subject in times of peace, a crafty hero in times of chaos” (治世之能臣，亂世之奸雄). Xu Shao died in 195 at the age of forty-six.
Biography
The Monthly Evaluations
Xu Shao was born in 150 in Pingyu County (平輿縣), Runan Commandery (汝南郡, in present-day Henan Province). He was known from a young age for his keen judgment of character and his ability to assess people’s potential and moral qualities.
Together with his cousin Xu Jing, Xu Shao established the Monthly Evaluations (月旦評), a regular gathering held on the first day of each lunar month (月旦, yuèdàn) at which the two men would publicly assess the character and prospects of notable figures in the region. A favourable evaluation from Xu Shao and Xu Jing could significantly enhance a person’s reputation and career prospects, while an unfavourable one could damage it.
The Monthly Evaluations became an influential institution in late Han society, reflecting the broader practice of qingyi (清議, “pure discussion”) — the moral and political commentary by which scholars and gentlemen sought to influence public opinion and court appointments. The practice of character evaluation was deeply intertwined with the Han dynasty’s system of recruiting officials on the basis of moral reputation.
The evaluation of Cao Cao
The episode for which Xu Shao is most famous occurred when the young Cao Cao sought an assessment from him. Cao Cao, then a young man of unconventional and sometimes troubling behaviour, understood that an evaluation from Xu Shao could greatly enhance his standing. He visited Xu Shao repeatedly, but Xu Shao initially refused to assess him.
Eventually, Cao Cao pressed Xu Shao until he finally delivered his verdict: “In times of peace, you would be a capable minister; in times of chaos, a crafty hero” (治世之能臣，亂世之奸雄). Cao Cao was delighted with this assessment and departed laughing. The evaluation captured something essential about Cao Cao’s character — his extraordinary abilities and his moral flexibility — and proved remarkably prescient.
The story of this encounter appears in both the Records of the Three Kingdoms and the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, and has become one of the most famous anecdotes of the Three Kingdoms period.
Later career
As the political situation in the Han empire deteriorated, Xu Shao left Runan and travelled south. He went to Guangling Commandery (廣陵郡), where he was received by Tao Qian (陶謙), the Governor of Xu Province. Tao Qian treated Xu Shao with great courtesy.
However, Xu Shao eventually decided to move further south, to Yuzhang Commandery (豫章郡, in present-day Jiangxi Province), where Liu Yao (劉繇) was in control. Xu Shao died in Yuzhang in 195 at the age of forty-six.
Liu Yao had wanted Xu Shao to serve as his Administrator of Yuzhang, but Xu Shao declined the appointment, preferring to maintain his independence.
Xu Shao and He Qia
In the Records of the Three Kingdoms (volume 23), Xu Shao is mentioned in the biography of He Qia (和洽). The passage notes that He Qia had a conversation with Xu Shao, and that Xu Shao’s assessments of people were highly regarded in their time.
Influence
Xu Shao’s influence extended beyond his own lifetime. His evaluations shaped the reputations of many figures who would later play important roles in the Three Kingdoms period. The Monthly Evaluations, which he conducted with his cousin Xu Jing, became a model for the practice of character evaluation in Chinese culture.
Xu Jing, his cousin, survived much longer and eventually served under Liu Zhang in Shu and then under Liu Bei. Xu Jing’s career was long and distinguished, though his reputation was somewhat tarnished when he abandoned Liu Zhang for Liu Bei during Liu Bei’s conquest of Yi Province.
In fiction
In the Romance of the Three Kingdoms (三國演義), the encounter between Xu Shao and Cao Cao is dramatised and appears in the opening chapters of the novel. The novel’s account follows the historical record closely, preserving the famous evaluation and its significance.
Historical sources
Xu Shao is mentioned in the Records of the Three Kingdoms (SGZ), primarily in the biography of his cousin Xu Jing (volume 38, Book of Shu), where his role in the Monthly Evaluations and his evaluation of Cao Cao are described. He is also mentioned in the Book of Later Han (HHS), which provides additional details about his life and career.
Family
Xu Shao was from the prominent Xu family of Runan. His cousin Xu Jing was his closest collabourator in the Monthly Evaluations. The specific names of Xu Shao’s parents and other family members are not fully preserved in the surviving sources.